The pseudo-anonymous Bitcoin analyst named Plan B gave its 704,000 Twitter followers an update on the infamous Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Bitcoin pricing model. Plan B stressed on Aug. 27 that the “next few months will be crucial” as it believes the Bitcoin S2F model “forecasts $ 100,000 by Christmas”.
‘$ 100K by Christmas’
Plan B is a popular figure in the Bitcoin world as the pseudo-anonymous analyst is known for its stock-to-flow pricing model (S2F). Basically, the model quantifies the scarcity of the commodity (bitcoin) and then divides it by the annual output (the flow).
Plan B and many other S2F fans have insisted for some time that BTC could one day hit $ 100,000 and potentially $ 1 million per coin in the future if the model is right. However, Bitcoin (BTC) prices fell sharply in June and July after reaching more than $ 64,000 per unit.
After the drop in prices, Bitcoin.com News reported that Plan B was still confident that the Bitcoin bull was “not over”. Following the last S2F update, Plan B spoke about its model on August 27 and made a prediction.
“Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model Predicts $ 100,000 by Christmas,” Plan B tweeted. “Time model (decrease in returns, increase in cycles) $ 30,000. The next few months will be crucial. Notice that the color overlay is an on-chain signal (no time to halve), indicating that we are in line with S2F between bottom (blue) and top (red), ”added the pseudo-anonymous analyst added.
The time model discussion, Plan B’s S2F preference
Benjamin Cowen of Intothecryptoverse.com responded to Plan B’s August 27 and tweet called: “The time model only shows the ‘fair value’. It does not mean that the price of Bitcoin has to match that price at any given point in time. We can move above and below, as we do with the S2F model. “
Plan B responded to Cowen’s statement and called: Of course, the BTC price can move above and below both models.[The] Point is, BTC price is currently ABOVE the time model, so it’s not illogical to expect lower prices if you follow suit [the] Time model or and [the price of BTC] is BELOW S2F model, so it makes sense to expect higher prices if you follow S2F. “
However, Cowen continued to answer specification:
The percentage extension over the time model shows that we have to expect that it will ultimately go further than it already is. If we started to expect it to drop the minute it rises above fair value, that would also be irrational.
Plan B has long been bullish and Bitcoin.com News has covered the S2F trajectory and the model’s criticisms. The model’s creator has said many times that BTC will hit six-figure prices and he believes the model is on the right track. The pseudo-anonymous analyst regularly tweets about S2F, along with other statistics and numbers tied to Bitcoin.
“Nobody who has bought Bitcoin and held it for more than 4 years (200 weeks) has ever lost money,” Plan B called last week. “In addition, both 200wma and the realized upper limit (average cost price of all 18.8 million BTC) are at the all-time high (ATH).” On August 19, Plan B explains why he prefers the S2F model over the time model and other estimates.
“S2F model: BTC = a * (S2F ratio) ^ b”, plan B specified. “Time model: BTC = a * (months from Jan.09) ^ b. Why I prefer the S2F model: [It] tells you when the price goes up: after halving, [has] more robust parameters (a, b), time no input variable, S2FX no time series, interpolation [is] possible, [and its] usable with other assets, ”added the S2F creator.
What do you think of the stock-to-flow update of Plan B and calling for $ 100,000 by Christmas? Let us know what you think on this matter in the comments below.
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